Can LMICs Afford the Energy Transition? Understanding Financing Burdens and International Support Options

November 15 @ 1:00 pm 2:30 pm

November 15 @ 1:00 pm 2:30 pm

Green Zone, Global Alliance of Universities on Climate (GAUC) Pavilion

KEYNOTE SPEAKER: Vivien Foster (Imperial College London, UK)

The global transition to net-zero emissions poses significant financial challenges for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A central theme of COP29 will be climate finance, with a spotlight on the UNFCCC’s New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which aims to establish a more structured and ambitious global financial commitment to support the Global South, replacing the current ad hoc US$100 billion target per year by the end of 2024. Once an overall climate financing envelope is established, the next policy question that arises is how to ensure a fair allocation of these global resources across individual LMICs.

The event will showcase an emerging analytical tool MinFin, which can be used to measure climate financing gaps at the country level, and to simulate alternative forms of international support through a variety of financial instruments. Contrasting case studies from two African nations – Kenya and Ghana – will serve to illustrate the magnitude of the financial challenges involved and the extent to which they differ across countries.

SPEAKERS:

Sam Fankhauser (University of Oxford, UK), CHAIR

Marcela Jaramillo (2050 Pathways Platform, France)

Nam Nguyen Hoang (National Economics University of Vietnam)

Muchima Mulunda (University of Zambia)

Philipp Trotter (Professor of Sustainability Management, University of Wuppertal, Germany)

DESCRIPTION: The global transition to net-zero emissions poses significant financial challenges for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A central theme of COP29 will be climate finance, with a spotlight on the UNFCCC’s New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which aims to establish a more structured and ambitious global financial commitment to support the Global South, replacing the current ad hoc US$100 billion target per year by the end of 2024. Once an overall climate financing envelope is established, the next policy question that arises is how to ensure a fair allocation of these global resources across individual LMICs.

The event will showcase an emerging analytical tool – MinFin – which can be used to measure climate financing gaps at the country level, and to simulate alternative forms of international support through a variety of financial instruments. The model helps determine whether implementation is financially viable, identifies potential financing gaps, and explores strategies to mitigate them. The insights gained from this work aim to provide a foundation for more targeted and effective allocation of climate finance, ensuring that funding reaches the countries equitably and supports sustainable, financially viable energy transitions.

Contrasting case studies from two African nations – Kenya and Ghana – will serve to illustrate the magnitude of the financial challenges involved and the extent to which they differ across countries.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND? Ministries of Finance, International Financial Institutions, policy makers, Ministries of Energy and academics.

MORE: This relates to the COP Theme of Climate Finance and the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance.

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Climate Compatible Growth (CCG)